Status quo apologists' arguments are getting sillier

Now that it's de rigueur, even among the formerly staunchly anti-environmental crowd, to acknowledge global climate change and species depletion and other truths once held only by "those wacky greenheads," the arguments supporting the oil economy status quo, coming from the mouths of Big Oil apologists, are becoming marvelously convoluted.

Have a gander at this op-ed in the Dispatch, going under the title, "As crazy as it sounds, oil has been good for the environment."

In the piece, Goldberg identifies some of the known dangers of expanding domestic food-crop-based ethanol production as a possible "green" replacement for foreign oil. His self-serving argument is specious: given those same dangerous supposed effects, no one in a position of power (other than more self-serving, corn-district congresspeople) is seriously considering a wholesale push for corn-based ethanol as a viable alternative to expensive foreign oil imports. That's so 1990s. Eyes and R&D dollars are instead on cellulosic ethanol production as ONE part of a multi-faceted solution to oil imports.

Further, he points out that increasing our solar electricity production even by a factor of 25 would do nothing to alleviate oil import problems, because we don't use electricity for transportation. True enough under the status quo. But perhaps Mr. Goldberg has not been paying attention to the enormous growth of the electric vehicle industry; converting any proportion of our national vehicle fleet to electric vehicles will obviate the need for ANY liquid fuels for that proportion-- a strong incentive, even among supposed "conservatives." Yes, the added burden to domestic electricity production will require further innovations in how we generate, store, and transport that increasingly important energy as well. But the greater efficiency of electric vehicles means the energy requirement is thereby substantially reduced. EVs is the obvious transition for transportation (toward urban dominance of alternatively-fueled public transit), and therefore a huge reduction in oil imports and use.

Fact is, we're so deeply entrenched in our oil addiction that we face massive changes to our energy, transportation, building systems, consumer goods, AND agriculture infrastructures if we are to have a hope of continuing this society at anything like current standards of living. Peak Oil is looming large on the close horizon. We have no choice but to go forward to alternative energy sources; to remain entrenched in the cheap oil status quo is to capitulate to doom.

Minimal Impact Man

I went to a screening of the documentary film No Impact Man at a local indie cinema here. I'd been looking forward to it since hearing about it several months ago.

It's a good film and raises important questions about our profligate American lifestyle--- and more importantly, about the flexibility of that lifestyle. If, as many suggest, the effects of Peak Oil occur powerfully and suddenly, our present wasteful, energy-rich lifestyle will go right out the window in a hearbeat. What happens then?

Perhaps, as Colin Beavan and family did by choice, we all will find ourselves foot-stomping our laundry in the tub and using beeswax candles for light--- but by necessity. How many will adapt? How many will insulate themselves with money (the rich, duh!) to avoid change, even if it can produce positive effects on their happiness and fulfillment (as was arguably the case for Colin's family)?

I've been making efforts to reduce my own impact, but there's always further to go. Maybe a long-term transition is the key to minimizing the impacts.

I recommend finding a screening of the film and hearing what it has to say about how we live.

Peak Oil - Hirsch on the Hirsch Report, 4 years later

Robert Hirsch, author of the so-called Hirsch Report (October, 2005; pdf file), spoke with Steve Andrews of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas - USA this past September, in advance of the October ASPO-USA conference held in Denver.

I recommend reading their brief interview (~2,200 words), as it offers not only Mr. Hirsch's current views on the subject of peak oil (things ain't any better), but also some insight into the glaring absence of this issue from the mainstream media and political discourse.

Read the surprisingly brief (10 pages) report itself as well, for greater background on this essential subject.

Folks, I don't know how urgently I can promote the importance of this issue without seeming like an Apocalyptic nutjob; and at the risk of alienating a few friends and acquaintances, I'm happy to go that far. I can't conceive of an issue with more grave impact upon our immediate future than this one. By "our," I mean humanity at large: all peoples in all nations, oil-importing or -exporting, rich or poor, populous or underpopulated.

While it's certainly refreshing that coverage of environmental fragility and impending eco-disasters (led by "global warming") has not only reached the forefront in mainstream media news coverage, but has also stimulated a considerable degree of political, economic, and social change; yet the consequences of peak oil, in the short and medium term, are far more deleterious. I've said it before: this issue is civilization-changing. I really want to say civilization-ending, but that's an argument that requires a solid definition of civilization I'm not prepared to present. But peak oil will almost without question bring an end to life as we know it in the wealthy nations of the Northern Hemisphere, which change will, in turn, profoundly affect the rest of the world as well.

Please educate yourself on this vital topic. Spread the word, talk with people. Write or call your congressional representatives. Fire off a letter to the editor of your newspaper asking why they don't offer (more/any) coverage. Ask your friends, co-workers and colleagues, "Have you heard about peak oil?" Awkward? Possibly. But that's nothing to the awkward you'll experience when the effects of peak oil come crashing down.

We can avoid the worst effects of peak oil, but only if we act NOW, as in TODAY. Hirsch, in the interview, suggests the situation may already be dire-----

We found that because the decline rate in world oil production was going to be in multiple percents per year, it was going to take a very long time for mitigation to catch up to the decline in world oil production. Basically, the best we found was that starting a worldwide crash program 20 years before the problem hits avoid[s] serious problems. If you started 10 years before-hand, you are in a lot of trouble; and if you wait to the last minute until the problem is obvious, then you’re in deep trouble for much longer than a decade. As it turns out, we no longer have the 10 or 20 years that were two of our scenarios.

----- but cause for hope comes from the fact that while the general populace has remained largely ignorant of the subject, there are great minds at work on the problem and some of them offer potentially powerful tools to mitigate some of the consequences of the coming socio-economic transition: the Transition Initiative is one such tool.

Please take a few minutes to learn about peak oil. Please.

Copenhagen was a bust. Surprise!

While the "negotiators" at COP15 pat themselves on the back for their accomplishments, the rest of the world recognizes that traditional political processes are ineffective when time is of the essence.

So if you weren't clear about things, it's up to the people to lead the way. Yes, that means being the change you want to see in the world. Being green has always started at home: time to put your actions where your mouth is! Reduce waste, increase energy efficiency, raise awareness, start conversations. There's plenty to talk about: Peak Oil, the recent EPA determination that CO2 poses a public health risk, foreign oil dependence, the economic opportunities represented by a national push for green energy... to name just a few.

Let's move forward!

More to digest...

On top of the turkey, or turducken, or TVP veggie loaf, or whatever y'all had for Thanksgiving yesterday...

I meant to include this in my 11/25 post:

Though unsurprising, it recently came to light that the International Energy Agency has been downplaying the severity of coming global oil shortages while overestimating future discoveries and production figures— and this under some pressure from the U.S, per a whistleblower at the agency.

The IEA acts as a policy advisor to many developed nations with respect to energy issues. These nations look to IEA largely for forecasting fossil fuel availability. Ironic, then, that the agency's website describes its work for its members as "to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for their citizens." A bit of greenwashing can do wonders for one's PR.

Climate change in doubt? Doesn't matter!

In the lead-up to the U.N. Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, predictably, doubt about anthropogenic global climate change is rapidly springing up in the media. Whether this turn of events is a result of better organizing on the part of right-wing media (an unusual preponderance of "denier" headlines appear on Fox, after all!); or represents a genuine crumbling of the supposed climate science consensus; or perhaps simply demonstrates the predictable boredom of the populace, tired of arguing immediately unproveable theories; or even reveals all media's attempt to boost sales by injecting more vitriol into the "debate"---- who can say?

The point remains: the need for drastic course correction of our global, oil-fed juggernaut remains unchanged. We must get off the juice, and we must begin the process yesterday. Absent a dramatic shift away from fossil fuel sources, we very likely face, in the short term, a massive catastrophe encompassing economic and societal spheres across the globe, and affecting all aspects of daily life-- all largely unrelated to current and predicted environmental disasters. The phenomenon precipitating this catastrophe is Peak Oil.

Here's an image of a very useful, information-dense chart showing the oil peak (by Rob Bracken and Dave Menninger):


Peak Oil Poster

This copy of the chart was produced in July, 2006, and I'd like to find a more current version, as 2008, in Colin Campbell's estimation, may well have seen the peak.

======== Algie 'splains Peak Oil in a Nutshell! ========
Peak Oil is not technically about "running out of oil," though they're related concepts. Long before you run out of a resource-- I mean, one in great demand-- you run out of the ability to obtain enough of the resource to meet growing (or even steady) consumption. Imagine a bell curve (or look at the humorously idealized Hubbert peak at the link just above the peak oil poster, above). The area below the curve represents global production, with a timeline as the x-axis. The easy stuff (e.g., sweet Arabian crude) gets used up first; but before then, folks look for other sources. Lower-quality oil (heavy crudes, shale oil, etc.) is more expensive (and energy-intensive) to extract, making it more expensive. More importantly, global discoveries of new sources have been in steep decline since the 1960s. They keep looking, but they don't find nearly as much anymore, and more and more of what they find is harder and harder to get. Prices go up. And up and up. And no matter what they drill, they can't keep up with ever-growing demand. When all aspects of your modern civilization-- from transportation to manufacturing to food production-- are utterly dependent on that resource... well, let's just say that's a place you don't want to be.

By many (most?) accounts, we're now on the downslope of global oil production. But demand for the stuff continues to rise; with China and India both in the throes of massive economic development, the gap between annual energy production and demand can only increase. And oil is the biggest energy player. All fossils are limited, but the oil peak has been an area of intensive study because it represents the most key cheap energy source (yes, sunlight's cheaper, but not as well established in the energy economy!) that is fundamental to our modern way of life: it's the dominant fuel for engines of all sizes, so is the cornerstone of major industry and transportation globally.

And we're right now at the point where supply will begin to be unable to keep up with ever-growing demand. Journalist Richard Heinberg, who has written extensively on the subject, has reflected the widely held belief that the time it would take to successfully shift our global economy away from fossils, and avoid the worst of the disasters, would be on the order of 20 years, counting from the oil peak. Even a crash global effort (and, I would say, that's assuming an unprecedented, international, cooperative agreement), would take at least ten years to implement, and would not avoid massive disruptions and humanitarian strife. Yet here we totter at the apex, facing a downslope into an abyss of chaos that it would not be alarmist to suggest is civilization-changing-- and we have exactly zero (known) plan. (You can bet that powerful people around the world are indeed preparing for the worst. It's no secret, for example, that China has been buying up oil reserves. Just to hedge their bets in lean economic times, do you think?)

And how often do you see headlines about peak oil? Is it a topic of concern or even occasional conversation among your peers, friends, family, colleagues? Chances are, no. And the time to change that sad fact is long overdue.

As always, begin by educating yourself:

Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

Wikipedia article

The Oil Drum

Hubbert Peak of Oil Production

Peak Oil News

Films:

After the Peak: the end of cheap oil

End of Suburbia

Escape from Suburbia

The next step is to bring this vitally important issue into the scope of daily conversation through discussion in your network of peers, family, and friends. Put it on facebook, tweet it, myspace it, staple flyers on telephone poles if you must, but get it out there. Bring it into the light where it belongs. Once this topic hits the headlines, of course the right wing will attack it as "a flagrant grab for attention by the liberal media, in their desperation to keep debunked anthropogenic climate-change conspiracy theory afloat" (look for a shorter version of that headline on Fox!), but who cares?

Once you've had a chance to investigate Peak Oil, and have passed through the period of profound shock that understanding it typically produces, you may then be eager to get on board with a solution. I strongly recommend reading a copy of Rob Hopkins's The Transition Handbook. This book outlines the components and steps needed to relocalize our economies and our lives, in preparation not simply for the inevitable lower-energy lifestyle that's ahead; it offers a hope-filled and exciting opportunity to recreate a way of life that is better than what we now experience. Consider joining or starting a Transition Initiative in your town/city/region/county.

I look forward to creating a preferable, more sustainable future with you!